Rodent control strategies and Lassa virus: some unexpected effects in Guinea, West Africa.

The Natal multimammate mouse (Mastomys natalensis) is the host of Lassa mammarenavirus, causing Lassa haemorrhagic fever in West Africa. As there is currently no operational vaccine and therapeutic drugs are limited, we explored rodent control as an alternative to prevent Lassa virus spillover in Upper Guinea, where the disease is highly endemic in rural areas. In a seven-year experiment, we distributed rodenticides for 10-30 days once a year and, in the last year, added intensive snap trapping for three months in all the houses of one village. We also captured rodents both before and after the intervention period to assess their effectiveness by examining alterations in trapping success and infection rates (Lassa virus RNA and IgG antibodies). We found that both interventions reduced the rodent population by 74-92% but swiftly rebounded to pre-treatment levels, even already six months after the last snap-trapping control. Furthermore, while we observed that chemical control modestly decreased Lassa virus infection rates annually (a reduction of 5% in seroprevalence per year), the intensive trapping unexpectedly led to a significantly higher infection rate (from a seroprevalence of 28% before to 67% after snap trapping control). After seven years, we conclude that annual chemical control, alone or with intensive trapping, is ineffective and sometimes counterproductive in preventing Lassa virus spillover in rural villages. These unexpected findings may result from density-dependent breeding compensation following culling and the survival of a small percentage of chronically infected rodents that may spread the virus to a new susceptible generation of mice.

Genomic characterization of SARS-CoV-2 in Guinea, West Africa.

SARS-CoV-2 has claimed several million lives since its emergence in late 2019. The ongoing evolution of the virus has resulted in the periodic emergence of new viral variants with distinct fitness advantages, including enhanced transmission and immune escape. While several SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern trace their origins back to the African continent-including Beta, Eta, and Omicron-most countries in Africa remain under-sampled in global genomic surveillance efforts. In an effort to begin filling these knowledge gaps, we conducted retrospective viral genomic surveillance in Guinea from October 2020 to August 2021. We found that SARS-CoV-2 clades 20A, 20B, and 20C dominated throughout 2020 until the coincident emergence of the Alpha and Eta variants of concern in January 2021. The Alpha variant remained dominant throughout early 2021 until the arrival of the Delta variant in July. Surprisingly, despite the small sample size of our study, we also found the persistence of the early SARS-CoV-2 clade 19B as late as April 2021. Together, these data help fill in our understanding of the SARS-CoV-2 population dynamics in West Africa early in the COVID-19 pandemic.

Application of advanced very high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR)-based vegetation health indices for modelling and predicting malaria in Northern Benin, West Africa.

BACKGROUND: Vegetation health (VH) is a powerful characteristic for forecasting malaria incidence in regions where the disease is prevalent. This study aims to determine how vegetation health affects the prevalence of malaria and create seasonal weather forecasts using NOAA/AVHRR environmental satellite data that can be substituted for malaria epidemic forecasts. METHODS: Weekly advanced very high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data were retrieved from the NOAA satellite website from 2009 to 2021. The monthly number of malaria cases was collected from the Ministry of Health of Benin from 2009 to 2021 and matched with AVHRR data. Pearson correlation was calculated to investigate the impact of vegetation health on malaria transmission. Ordinary least squares (OLS), support vector machine (SVM) and principal component regression (PCR) were applied to forecast the monthly number of cases of malaria in Northern Benin. A random sample of proposed models was used to assess accuracy and bias. RESULTS: Estimates place the annual percentage rise in malaria cases at 9.07% over 2009-2021 period. Moisture (VCI) for weeks 19-21 predicts 75% of the number of malaria cases in the month of the start of high mosquito activities. Soil temperature (TCI) and vegetation health index (VHI) predicted one month earlier than the start of mosquito activities through transmission, 78% of monthly malaria incidence. CONCLUSIONS: SVM model D is more effective than OLS model A in the prediction of malaria incidence in Northern Benin. These models are a very useful tool for stakeholders looking to lessen the impact of malaria in Benin.

Representations of an Ebola 'outbreak' through Story Technologies.

BACKGROUND: Attempts to understand biosocial phenomena using scientific methods are often presented as value-neutral and objective; however, when used to reduce the complexity of open systems such as epidemics, these forms of inquiry necessarily entail normative considerations and are therefore fashioned by political worldviews (ideologies). From the standpoint of poststructural theory, the character of these representations is at most limited and partial. In addition, these modes of representation (as stories) do work (as technologies) in the service of, or in resistance to, power. METHODS: We focus on a single Ebola case cluster from the 2013-2016 outbreak in West Africa and examine how different disciplinary forms of knowledge production (including outbreak forecasting, active epidemiological surveillance, post-outbreak serosurveys, political economic analyses, and ethnography) function as Story Technologies. We then explore how these technologies are used to curate 'data,' analysing the erasures, values, and imperatives evoked by each. RESULTS: We call attention to the instrumental-in addition to the descriptive-role Story Technologies play in ordering contingencies and establishing relationships in the wake of health crises. DISCUSSION: By connecting each type of knowledge production with the systems of power it reinforces or disrupts, we illustrate how Story Technologies do ideological work. These findings encourage research from pluriversal perspectives and advocacy for measures that promote more inclusive modes of knowledge production.

A spiking fever.

Long neglected, Lassa fever is surging in West Africa. Researchers want to know why.

The Importance of Lassa Fever and Its Disease Management in West Africa.

Lassa virus (LASV) is a zoonotic pathogen endemic throughout western Africa and is responsible for a human disease known as Lassa fever (LF). Historically, LASV has been emphasized as one of the greatest public health threats in West Africa, with up to 300,000 cases and 5000 associated deaths per year. This, and the fact that the disease has been reported in travelers, has driven a rapid production of various vaccine candidates. Several of these vaccines are currently in clinical development, despite limitations in understanding the immune response to infection. Alarmingly, the host immune response has been implicated in the induction of sensorineural hearing loss in LF survivors, legitimately raising safety questions about any future vaccines as well as efficacy in preventing potential hearing loss. The objective of this article is to revisit the importance and prevalence of LF in West Africa, with focus on Nigeria, and discuss current therapeutic approaches and ongoing vaccine development. In addition, we aim to emphasize the need for more scientific studies relating to LF-associated hearing loss, and to promote critical discussion about potential risks and benefits of vaccinating the population in endemic regions of West Africa.

Lassa fever vaccine use cases and demand: Perspectives from select West African experts.

Lassa fever (LF) is a zoonotic viral hemorrhagic disease endemic to several West African countries. Approximately 300-500,000 cases occur annually across all ages with 10-20% case fatality rates. A LF vaccine is a recognized public health priority, with several candidates entering clinical trials. However, the perspectives of regional experts regarding critical vaccine properties, ideal delivery methods, and priority target populations remain unclear. Using a mixed methods approach with a standardized questionnaire, we individually interviewed 8 West African stakeholders, each with extensive knowledge and experience of LF. They strongly favored the use of a mass, proactive campaign strategy to immunize a wide age range of people in high-risk areas, including pregnant women and health care workers. We estimated that these and other plausible delivery scenarios could result in an initial demand of anywhere from 1 to 100 million doses, with most demand coming from Nigeria. These findings may help inform LF vaccine development and deployment efforts.

Towards an intelligent malaria outbreak warning model based intelligent malaria outbreak warning in the northern part of Benin, West Africa.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is one of the major vector-borne diseases most sensitive to climatic change in West Africa. The prevention and reduction of malaria are very difficult in Benin due to poverty, economic insatiability and the non control of environmental determinants. This study aims to develop an intelligent outbreak malaria early warning model driven by monthly time series climatic variables in the northern part of Benin. METHODS: Climate data from nine rain gauge stations and malaria incidence data from 2009 to 2021 were extracted from the National Meteorological Agency (METEO) and the Ministry of Health of Benin, respectively. Projected relative humidity and temperature were obtained from the coordinated regional downscaling experiment (CORDEX) simulations of the Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric regional climate model (RCA4). A structural equation model was employed to determine the effects of climatic variables on malaria incidence. We developed an intelligent malaria early warning model to predict the prevalence of malaria using machine learning by applying three machine learning algorithms, including linear regression (LiR), support vector machine (SVM), and negative binomial regression (NBiR). RESULTS: Two ecological factors such as factor 1 (related to average mean relative humidity, average maximum relative humidity, and average maximal temperature) and factor 2 (related to average minimal temperature) affect the incidence of malaria. Support vector machine regression is the best-performing algorithm, predicting 82% of malaria incidence in the northern part of Benin. The projection reveals an increase in malaria incidence under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 over the studied period. CONCLUSION: These results reveal that the northern part of Benin is at high risk of malaria, and specific malaria control programs are urged to reduce the risk of malaria.

Socioeconomic inequalities in underweight children: a cross-sectional analysis of trends in West Africa over two decades.

OBJECTIVE: To study trends in socioeconomic inequalities in underweight children in West Africa, and specifically to analyse the concentration index of underweight inequalities and measure inequalities in the risk of being malnourished by household wealth index. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: The study used 50 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys conducted between 1999 and 2020 across 14 countries by the DHS and UNICEF. PARTICIPANTS: The study included 481 349 children under the age of 5 years. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The analysis used three variables: weight-for-age index, household wealth index and household residence. The inequality concentration index for underweight children and the relative risk of being underweight between 2000 and 2020 were calculated. RESULTS: The prevalence of underweight in West Africa showed a downward trend from 2000 to 2020. Nonetheless, the prevalence of underweight children under 5 years of age is still very high in West Africa compared with other sub-Saharan African countries, and the sustainable development objective is yet to be achieved. There was a wide disparity among countries and significant socioeconomic inequalities in underweight children within countries. The proportions of underweight children were concentrated in poor households in all countries in West Africa and over all periods. Socioeconomic inequalities in underweight children were more significant in countries where the prevalence of underweight was low. These inequalities were more pronounced in urban areas in West Africa from 2000 to 2020. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: There is a high concentration of socioeconomic inequalities in underweight children in disadvantaged households in West Africa.

Concurrent Clade I and Clade II Monkeypox Virus Circulation, Cameroon, 1979-2022.

During 1979-2022, Cameroon recorded 32 laboratory-confirmed mpox cases among 137 suspected mpox cases identified by the national surveillance network. The highest positivity rate occurred in 2022, indicating potential mpox re-emergence in Cameroon. Both clade I (n = 12) and clade II (n = 18) monkeypox virus (MPXV) were reported, a unique feature of mpox in Cameroon. The overall case-fatality ratio of 2.2% was associated with clade II. We found mpox occurred only in the forested southern part of the country, and MPXV phylogeographic structure revealed a clear geographic separation among concurrent circulating clades. Clade I originated from eastern regions close to neighboring mpox-endemic countries in Central Africa; clade II was prevalent in western regions close to West Africa. Our findings suggest that MPXV re-emerged after a 30-year lapse and might arise from different viral reservoirs unique to ecosystems in eastern and western rainforests of Cameroon.

Molecular characterization of an outbreak-involved Bacillus anthracis strain confirms the spillover of anthrax from West Africa.

BACKGROUND: Anthrax, a zoonotic disease caused by the spore-forming bacterium Bacillus anthracis, remains a major global public health concern, especially in countries with limited resources. Sierra Leone, a West African country historically plagued by anthrax, has almost been out of report on this disease in recent decades. In this study, we described a large-scale anthrax outbreak affecting both animals and humans and attempted to characterize the pathogen using molecular techniques. METHODS: The causative agent of the animal outbreak in Port Loko District, Sierra Leone, between March and May 2022 was identified using the nanopore sequencing technique. A nationwide active surveillance was implemented from May 2022 to June 2023 to monitor the occurrence of anthrax-specific symptoms in humans. Suspected cases were subsequently verified using quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Full-genome sequencing was accomplished by combining long-read and short-read sequencing methods. Subsequent phylogenetic analysis was performed based on the full-chromosome single nucleotide polymorphisms. RESULTS: The outbreak in Port Loko District, Sierra Leone, led to the death of 233 animals between March 26th and May 16th, 2022. We ruled out the initial suspicion of Anaplasma species and successfully identified B. anthracis as the causative agent of the outbreak. As a result of the government's prompt response, out of the 49 suspected human cases identified during the one-year active surveillance, only 6 human cases tested positive, all within the first month after the official declaration of the outbreak. The phylogenetic analysis indicated that the BaSL2022 isolate responsible for the outbreak was positioned in the A.Br.153 clade within the TransEuroAsian group of B. anthracis. CONCLUSIONS: We successfully identified a large-scale anthrax outbreak in Sierra Leone. The causative isolate of B. anthracis, BaSL2022, phylogenetically bridged other lineages in A.Br.153 clade and neighboring genetic groups, A.Br.144 and A.Br.148, eventually confirming the spillover of anthrax from West Africa. Given the wide dissemination of B. anthracis spores, it is highly advisable to effectively monitor the potential reoccurrence of anthrax outbreaks and to launch campaigns to improve public awareness regarding anthrax in Sierra Leone.

Successful completion of onchocerciasis elimination mapping (OEM) in Niger, West Africa.

BACKGROUND: By 1987, onchocerciasis in Niger had been successfully controlled in the six endemic river basins. In 2017, onchocerciasis elimination mapping (OEM) was carried out to determine if there was any ongoing transmission in the country as a whole. METHODS: The recommended OEM procedures were implemented. RESULTS: Ten districts, that included 35 villages, required field investigation as sites of possible transmission. None of these were found capable of supporting black fly breeding, nor was there any evidence of the presence of Simulium sp. flies. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of OEM indicates that there is no transmission of onchocerciasis currently taking place in these newly assessed sites in Niger.

Drivers of healthcare expenditure growth in West Africa: A panel data investigation.

Per capita health expenditure in West African countries appears to have assumed a growing trend over the years. This may not be unconnected with the critical role played by health in economic growth, sustainable development and human capital formation. This study analysed drivers of healthcare expenditure in West Africa, using panel data analysis. Random Effects estimating technique was preferred to pooled Ordinary Least Squares and Fixed Effects techniques based on Hausman and Breusch-Pagan Lagrangian multiplier tests. Data employed were sourced from World Bank's world development indicators. The findings indicated that number of people using at least basic sanitation services, incidence of tuberculosis, malaria incidence, and per capita GDP, significantly increased healthcare expenditure in West Africa within the study period. Infant and under-five mortality (UFM) rates raised healthcare expenditure but insignificantly in the sub-region. The study recommends the need to reduce malaria and tuberculosis incidences as well as UFM rate in West Africa through appropriate policy enactment. Such policies should include adequate investment in education, increased per capita income, development of malaria vaccines, maintenance of hygienic environment and free treatment of tuberculosis patients.

Policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in West Africa: a scoping review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Four years after the devastating Ebola outbreak, governments in West Africa were quick to implement non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in response to the rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2. The NPIs implemented included physical distancing, closure of schools and businesses, restrictions on public gatherings and mandating the use of face masks among others. In the absence of widely available vaccinations, NPIs were the only known means to try to slow the spread of COVID-19. While numerous studies have assessed the effectiveness of these NPIs in high-income countries, less is known about the processes that lead to the adoption of policies and the factors that influence their implementation and adherence in low-income and middle-income countries. The objective of this scoping review is to understand the extent and type of evidence in relation to the policy formulation, decision-making and implementation stages of NPIs in West Africa. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A scoping review will be undertaken following the guidance developed by Arskey and O'Malley, the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) methodology for scoping reviews and the PRISMA guidelines for Scoping Reviews. Both peer-reviewed and grey literature will be searched using Web of Science, Embase, Scopus, APA PsycInfo, WHO Institutional Repository for Information Sharing, JSTOR and Google Advanced Search, and by searching the websites of the WHO, and the West African Health Organisation. Screening will be conducted by two reviewers based on inclusion and exclusion criteria, and data will be extracted, coded and narratively synthesised. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: We started this scoping review in May 2023, and anticipate finishing by April 2024. Ethics approval is not required since we are not collecting primary data. This protocol was registered at Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/gvek2/). We plan to disseminate this research through publications, conference presentations and upcoming West African policy dialogues on pandemic preparedness and response.

APOBEC3 deaminase editing in mpox virus as evidence for sustained human transmission since at least 2016.

Historically, mpox has been characterized as an endemic zoonotic disease that transmits through contact with the reservoir rodent host in West and Central Africa. However, in May 2022, human cases of mpox were detected spreading internationally beyond countries with known endemic reservoirs. When the first cases from 2022 were sequenced, they shared 42 nucleotide differences from the closest mpox virus (MPXV) previously sampled. Nearly all these mutations are characteristic of the action of APOBEC3 deaminases, host enzymes with antiviral function. Assuming APOBEC3 editing is characteristic of human MPXV infection, we developed a dual-process phylogenetic molecular clock that-inferring a rate of ~6 APOBEC3 mutations per year-estimates that MPXV has been circulating in humans since 2016. These observations of sustained MPXV transmission present a fundamental shift to the perceived paradigm of MPXV epidemiology as a zoonosis and highlight the need for revising public health messaging around MPXV as well as outbreak management and control.

Assessment of variability in PM2.5 and its impact on human health in a West African country.

PM2.5 has become a global challenge threatening human health, climate, and the environment. PM2.5 is ranked as the most common cause of premature mortality and morbidity. Therefore, the current study endeavors to probe the spatiodynamic characteristics of PM2.5 in the Republic of Niger and its impacts on human health from 1998 to 2019. Based on remotely sensed satellite datasets, the study found that the concentration of PM2.5 continued to rise in Niger from 68.85 µg/m3 in 1998 to 70.47 µg/m3 in 2019. During the study period, the annual average PM2.5 concentration is far above the WHO guidelines and the interim target-1 (35 µg/m3). The overall annual growth rate of PM2.5 concentration in Niger is 0.02 µg/m3/year. The health risk (HR) due to PM2.5 exposure is also escalated in Niger, particularly, in Southern Niger. The extent of the extremely high-risk areas corresponding to 1 × 104-9.4 × 105 µg.persons/m3 is increased from 0.9% (2000) to 2.8% (2019). Niamey, southern Dakoro, Mayahi, Tessaoua, Mirriah, Magaria, Matameye, Aguié, Madarounfa, Groumdji, Madaoua, Bouza, Keita, eastern Tahoua, eastern Illéla, Bkomnni, southern Dogon-Doutchi, Gaya, eastern Boboye, central Kollo, and western Tillabéry are experienced high HR due to long-term exposure to PM2.5. These findings indicate that PM2.5 causes a serious health risk across Niger. There is an immediate need to carry out its regional control. Therefore, policymakers and the Nigerien government should make conscious efforts to identify the priority target areas with radically innovative appropriate mitigation interventions.

Inequitable access to Ebola vaccines and the resurgence of Ebola in Africa: A state of arts review.

The Ebola virus, a member of the filoviridae family of viruses, is responsible for causing Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) with a case fatality rate as high as 50%. The largest EVD outbreak was recorded in West Africa from March 2013 to June 2016, leading to over 28 000 cases and 11 000 deaths. It affected several countries, including Nigeria, Senegal, Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. Until then, EVD was predominantly reported in remote villages in central and west Africa close to tropical rainforests. Human mobility, behavioral and cultural norms, the use of bushmeat, burial customs, preference for traditional remedies and treatments, and resistance to health interventions are just a few of the social factors that considerably aid and amplify the risk of transmission. The scale and persistence of recent ebola outbreaks, as well as the risk of widespread global transmission and its ability for bioterrorism, have led to a rethinking of public health strategies to curb the disease, such as the expedition of Ebola vaccine production. However, as vaccine production lags in the subcontinent, among other challenges, the risk of another ebola outbreak is likely and feared by public health authorities in the region. This review describes the inequality of vaccine production in Africa and the resurgence of EVD, emphasizing the significance of health equality.

Dietary factors and hypertension risk in West Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies.

BACKGROUND: Contrary to North America and Europe, the prevalence of hypertension is rising in West Africa. Although diet is implicated as a contributor to this trend, nutritional guidelines in West Africa are not tailored to address this concern. This study aimed to address this limitation by investigating dietary factors common to West Africa and evaluating their association with hypertension. METHODS: PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and Medline were searched to identify studies that investigated diet and hypertension in West African adults. All meta-analyses used a generic inverse-variance random effects model, with subgroup analyses by age, BMI, and study location, and were performed in R. RESULTS: Three thousand, two hundred ninety-eight studies were identified, of which 31 ( n  = 48 809 participants) satisfied inclusion criteria - all cross-sectional. Meta-analyses of the association between dietary factors and hypertension included dietary fat [odds ratio (OR) = 1.76; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.44-2.14; P  < 0.0001], red meat (OR = 1.51; 95% CI: 1.04-2.18; P  = 0.03), junk-food (OR = 1.41; 95% CI: 1.19-1.67; P  < 0.0001), dietary salt (OR = 1.25; 95% CI: 1.12-1.40; P  < 0.0001), alcohol (OR = 1.17; 95% CI: 1.03-1.32; P  = 0.013), and 'fruits and vegetables' (OR = 0.80; 95% CI: 0.24-1.17; P  < 0.0001). Subgroup analyses suggested that 'fruit and vegetable' consumption is less protective in the elderly. CONCLUSION: High consumption of dietary salt, red meat, dietary fat, junk food, and alcohol are associated with increased odds of hypertension, whereas high fruit and vegetable appear protective. This region-specific evidence will support the development of nutritional assessment tools for clinicians, patients, and researchers aiming to reduce hypertension in West Africa.